March 1, 2010
More Great Instruction More great instructional content for all. To Non-Members – DVD bonus – 5 days left for sign up! Receive a free DVD, "Building Your Serve from the Ground Up," if you sign up for a TennisOne membership by midnight (Pacific) March 5th. Jim McLennan, our TennisOne Editor, has graciously given us 100 copies of his new DVD, "Building Your Serve from the Ground Up," to provide as a bonus for the first 100 who sign up for a TennisOne membership and keep it through the 30 day trial period. Deadline to take advantage of this bonus is in 5 days –March 5th.
To Members – 20% Discount on New Instructional DVDs We only have a few copies of Jim McLennan's new video to give away as bonuses. However, we've launched the new TennisOne Writers Store, and we're now offering a 20% discount ($7.50 off each) to TennisOne members on these great new instructional DVDs (login in first to access members links):
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Back on Track? Adam Gale A year ago, everyone was talking about the tragic, tearful decline of the greatest player of our age. Now, the tennis world is united in acclaiming Roger Federer once again as the greatest, wondering: 'how could we have ever doubted him?' But what does the future really hold for Federer? Is the Fed Express really back on track, or is this a short blip on the long road of decline? Adam Gale asks himself some serious questions about Federer's future, and gets some surprising answers from the game's history. Roger Federer declined in 2008–true or false? True. Between 2004 and 2007, the Swiss master won 86% (76-12) of his matches against top opponents, those who have reached grand slam finals since 2003. From January ’08 to May ’09, before he took the Madrid title, Federer won only 56% (18-14)–a thirty percent reduction. When it came to winning deciding sets in those close matches against the top ten, it was even more dramatic. Where before he had won two thirds (10-5) of those top-ten matches that went the distance, between the Australian Open 2008 to Rome 2009 the Swiss won less than a fifth (2-9). The only area where Federer was still at peak levels was his ability to beat the rank-and-file consistently, continuing to win over 90% of matches against players outside the top twenty. It was hardly a bad run by anyone else’s standards. Nonetheless, his inability to beat Murray, Djokovic, and Nadal in particular kept him from winning as prolifically as he had done before.
But now Roger has returned to his peak form? Again–true. The turning point came last year when he won the ATP World Tour 1000 event in Madrid, turning around a five-match losing streak against Rafael Nadal, and on a Spanish clay court of all places. As the number one player and holder of three of the four slams, Federer is now firmly back in the driver's seat. Following his stunning victory over Murray in straight sets in Melbourne, Federer now owns a 17-4 record (81%) against grand slam finalists since Madrid ’09. He has won a respectable half of his top ten deciding sets in the same period (5 of 10) and only had one loss to a player outside the top twenty (l. to Benneteau in Paris). With Nadal's knees the way they are now, nothing can stop Roger's final assault on the record books. Erm…that's sort of subjective; we can't really know what will happen in the future. He'll win at least twenty majors before he decides to retire, maybe more. Well, I don't see how you can say that quite yet, and besides… Federer's return to form is yet another example of his unique brilliance as far and away the greatest men's singles champion ever. Whoah… okay, hold on a minute! I can answer that one. False! There have in fact been several players who have bounced back from a decline to find their peak form. Like Ivan Lendl. Lendl was the greatest player of the 1980s. He was number one straight for three consecutive years, 1985-87. After an injury-plagued 1988, he was deposed from the year-end number one spot by Mats Wilander, a player who won three of four majors that year and who had been previously known mostly as a clay-court specialist. Lendl regained the number one spot, something only Federer has since emulated. Then there was Boris Becker. After years of relatively sub-par performances, Becker had a great 1996. He won his second Australian Open title–five years exactly after his previous major victory–and four other titles that year. You're living in the past. Anyway, you can't compare those guys to the Mighty Fed. 16 majors, anyone? Okay, Pete Sampras. 'Pistol Pete' is the man Federer is most often compared to, and he's almost exactly ten years older than Roger. He had a relatively poor 1998, and didn't win a title in the first half of 1999. Then he won Queen's Club. Then Wimbledon (again). Then he won every other tournament he entered for the rest of the year, barring only those from which he had to retire injured. Nobody's bounced back quite like Pete.
Whatever. So Roger’s not the only one to get back to the top. It doesn’t mean he won’t win twenty majors. No, it doesn’t. But here’s the thing–all those other guys experienced this great resurgence, and then dipped again. Fast. Lendl had a good 1989-90, but from 1991 until his retirement in ’94, his overall winning percentages really dropped, from well over 80% to below 70%. Boris Becker followed his great 1996 by collapsing in 1997. He never won another title. Even Sampras couldn’t hold back his decline for more than a year or so. After winning Wimbledon (again) in 2000, he entered into freefall, enduring a title drought that lasted more than two years, until his last hurrah at the US Open final in 2002 against Agassi. Now that was a match. Never mind that. You're saying you don't think Roger will last? Did you see that Australian Open final? Yes, I did. It was great. What I'm saying is that if Federer follows the pattern of all those other guys, it won't last long. You can't argue with history. Aren't you forgetting something? No, no I don't think so. All those guys were serious injury cases–Becker's wrists, Lendl's back, Sampras's everything! So? So Federer's clean, mean, and injury-free. He had mono in 2008; he started losing some. He gets better in 2009; he starts winning again. It's as simple as that. Okay, maybe you're right. Injuries are important and Federer's been remarkably healthy. His losses in 2008-9 may have been down to the lingering effects of glandular fever, the improved play of rivals Nadal, Murray, and Djokovic, or simply a lack of confidence coming from either or both of these sources. It's true that he's back to his winning ways again and that even in 2008 he wasn't so ill that his run of consecutive major semi-final appearances was broken (it now stands at an astonishing 23-and-counting). It's all very impressive, but remember nothing lasts forever. Besides, injuries aren't the only problem to come with ageing. Federer's been on the pro tour since 1998–i.e. this is his thirteenth year as a professional tennis player. How long can he really stay motivated? Most guys are already in the twilight of their career after ten, and I challenge you to find anyone who’s still winning tournaments after fifteen years as a pro. That's easy: Agassi. Oh.
Andre Agassi dropped out of the world's top 100 in 1997. Two years later he was world number one. Eight years later he reached his last major final, at the age of 35! He won 5 of his 8 slams in that 'second career' and 8 of his 17 ATP Master's Series/World Tour 1000 trophies. He stayed pretty motivated. I was hoping you'd forgotten about him. And Agassi's a bad example anyway–he was rarely fully-focused for more than a year at a time before he came back from tennis oblivion. It's not a fair comparison. Don't make me bring out Rosewall. Okay, okay–let's just agree on one thing, shall we? Federer might keep on winning for years to come, if he stays healthy and motivated. Which he will. Which he might. Come back in five years – eight years. Come back in eight years and we’ll talk again. Agreed? Agreed. Until then, we can just agree to disagree, okay? I don’t agree to that. Oh dear. As always, we would love to hear from you! Questions, comments, personal experiences all create helpful dialogue for everyone! Please click here to send us your email.
TennisOne Writers Store One of your many new benefits as a TennisOne membership is your ability to purchase selected instructional DVDs at 20% off ($7.50 off each) in our new TennisOne Writers Store (login in first to access members links):
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